iPhone 6 to launch in late September

Rumors about Apple’s flagship, the iPhone 6 and its release date have been many and in most cases, confusing. We’ve known for quite some time that Apple is planning to release its latest iPhone sometime this Autumn, but now, thanks to the analyst Gene Munster we are more than sure the device will arrive sometime during the last week of September. How does he know? He is an analyst after all, and even if for some of us his assumptions are a bit confusing, here is how Munster figured things out.

“We reach 16 million iPhone 6 units by assuming that Apple launches both a 4.7-inch and 5.5-inch iPhone 6 leading to a 14 million unit 3-day launch weekend (up to 55 percent year-over-year vs 9 million for the iPhone 5S/5C launch). For the launch weekend, we note the average y/y launch weekend growth for the past 5 iPhone launches averaged 62 percent, and the last two body-style upgrades averaged 48 percent y/y growth. We assume Apple sells another 2 million units in the remaining 2 days in the September quarter for a total of 16 million iPhone 6 units”, said Gene Munster.

Got the logic? Assuming a total of 16 million iPhone 6 units to be released in late September, results a year-per-year growth of 9%, without taking into account any new models. Considering Apple’s revenue projections for this part of the year, Munster expected sales of 38 million iPhones from July through September, meaning a late September launch will have to come with a, smaller than anticipated earlier, number of 16 million iPhone 6. A later launch means, almost every time, fewer units sold, but this does explain a bit of Apple’s lower overall revenues for this quarter of the year. In a note released late Tuesday, Munster also suggested the ideal release date for both the 4.4-inch and 5.5-inch iPhone 6 would be the last Friday of September, meaning “Apple will only benefit from 5 days of iPhone 6 sales vs. 12 in our prior expectation”, Munster added.

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Apart from an almost exact release date, Munster also spoke about what the release of the 5.5-inch iPhone 6 would mean for the iPad mini, suggesting sales for the iPad will be very affected. Considering Apple will still sell around $1.2 million such devices, it won’t be a problem even if the iPhone 6 sales end-up reducing iPad sales up to $4 million, according to the analyst. Plus, Munster also sees the release of the iWatch, a mobile payments platform and an Apple television set as compensations.